Cizaña, Chile y Banco Mundial explicado con manzanitas

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El Banco Mundial nació tras la Segunda Guerra Mundial. No tiene dueños. Es una entidad compuesta por 189 naciones. Su misión es brindar préstamos a países que lo requieran, con objeto que los Gobiernos no se queden sin financiamiento para su último fin: reducir año a año el número de personas pobres. Cada país no pesa lo mismo en la administración del banco. Estados Unidos, Japón, Alemania, Francia, Reino Unido y China concentran el 40% de los votos a la hora de tomar decisiones. En contraste, 24 países africanos sólo poseen el 2,85% de votos. Además de prestar dinero, el Banco Mundial elabora estudios y estadísticas para evaluar los desafíos de cada país y presentar ante la opinión pública su situación.

Uno de los indicadores que elabora el BM es el “Doing Business“. Este indicador busca medir cuán fácil es crear una empresa y llevarla en cada país. Analiza aspectos como: tasa de impuestos, tiempo de trámites para crear, llevar o cerrar una empresa, acceso a créditos y protección a la propiedad privada.

Paul Romer, uno de los economistas jefe y uno de los vicepresidentes del Banco Mundial, denunció que varios cambios en la metodología de cálculo del indicador “Doing Business” perjudicaron la calificación de Chile durante el gobierno de Bachelet y favorecieron las cifras obtenidas durante el de Piñera. El economista fue más allá y señaló que los cambios metodológicos obedecieron a “motivaciones políticas” del personal del Banco Mundial. La entidad y el economista a cargo del departamento que elabora el indicador lo desmintieron.

Paul Romer

El “Doing Business” es uno de los tantos indicadores que muchas entidades elaboran, sobre muchas materias. No es el “riesgo país”, como erróneamente vi señalar en redes sociales y prensa. En lo personal, para mi este indicador es un mero dato. Hay estadísticas mucho más relevantes. Por lo demás, en general, yo no uso datos del Banco Mundial. Me inculcaron usar datos de otras instituciones. Desconozco en profundidad por qué.

Cada país no pesa lo mismo en la administración del banco. Estados Unidos, Japón, Alemania, Francia, Reino Unido y China concentran el 40% de los votos a la hora de tomar decisiones. En contraste, 24 países africanos sólo poseen el 2,85% de votos.

De todas formas, el nombre “Banco Mundial” pesa. Entiendo que hay colegas que usan datos de esta entidad. Así también, cualquier persona no instruida en economía, pero interesada en el estado del país, puede compartir este dato, creyendo que es relevante y confiable. Al ser compartido, el resultado del indicador bien pudiera moldear la opinión y preferencia electoral de un lector. He ahí lo grave.

Es como si un profesor, por cizaña, le pone un 2 a un alumno en una nota que no pesa mucho. El problema es cuando el apoderado cree que esa nota 2 es el promedio final. El 2 no refleja el desempeño del alumno, y la ignorancia del apoderado magnifica su gravedad. El apoderado puede castigar a su hijo, cuando quizás el hijo no merecía reproche alguno.

La primera invitación es a no confiar mucho en las “notas” que entidades nacionales o extranjeras calculan y otorgan. No hay nada como lo que yo llamo “las cifras reales”. ¿Cuántas empresas se crearon este año? Fin. ¿Cuánto fue la inversión? Fin. ¿Cuántos nuevas personas están trabajando? Fin. Lo demás, secundario.

¿Que Chile ya no es un buen país para crear una empresa? Puede ser, no lo descarto, pero sabes, lo concreto es que se crearon más empresas que el año pasado.

La segunda invitación es a discriminar muy finamente la información que se llega y, sobretodo, se decide compartir. Vivimos en tiempos de posverdad, donde es cada vez más difícil distinguir entre lo que es verdad y mentira. No dejes que una institución te dicte la realidad. No dejes que un profesor dicte el grado de inteligencia de tu hijo.

 

Matías Godoy Mercado / Ing. Comercial y Magister en Finanzas / Director de Economía Para Todos

Web: Economía Para Todos

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